Roy Oswalt

From FoxSports.com
KC's patience may pay off ... eventually
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-still-a-year-away-from-winning-al-central-analysis-011912
JON PAUL MOROSI is practically saying the Royals are throwing away their only chance to win the AL Central in 2012, if they don't sign Roy Oswalt. For sure, obtaining a healthy Oswalt (or any #1 starting pitcher) would fill the only glairing gap in the Royals roster. The Royals have ignored the temptation to give away key portions of a deep and respected Farm System or overpay Free Agents in order to accomplish a short term gain. Dayton Moore has said many times this offseason that he & his staff are building a team that can be contenders for many years. You don’t do that by trading away key players in your farm system or overpaying veterans who may block your up and coming players. They seem to have the offense, defense & have bolstered an already strong bullpen. Again this year (as last year) their starting pitching appears to be their Achilles Heel.

You don’t have to be an old-school scout in suspenders with a stop watch & a speed-gun, or be living in mama’s basement with a scientific calculator to know that 20012 could fall short of contention for the Royals (even with all their young talented players). And then again a lot can happen between the last week of January and the end of September.

But for what it’s worth, here’s my take on Roy Oswalt. He's damaged goods asking for $10M. The Royals aren't the only team not biting on that... so I wouldn't trash the Royals for NOT signing
him. Besides, waiting to sign him isn't a bad thing, he WAS asking for multi-year deal… now, he’ll take a 1 year deal. With his medical history, nobody's giving him a $10M guaranteed contract...
no matter how many times he’s been an All-Star in the past.

I have a feeling that he'll end up signing a 1 year deal (possibly with a 1 or 2 yr. option), for a base salary of $3-5M & incentives like an All-Star appearance, X# of innings &/or no time on DL that could get him close to his $10M asking price. Of course, if he comes down to these more realistic terms, there may be several teams willing to take a flier on Mr. Oswalt. And maybe it’s telling how far the Royals have come that they aren’t jumping at a chance at catching lighting in a bottle, by overpaying a veteran looking for a chance to keep his career alive.

Who knows, the Royals may already have their true #1 starting pitcher in their system. Luis Mendoza, Felipe Paulino, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Crow, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, or even Luke Hochevar could turn into that true #1 guy in the starting rotation.

Of course, a healthy Roy Oswalt would…

"Named Six"

The below is my gut feeling of how these “Named Six” will do in 2011… not based on anything but my gut.

Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies, Jeff Francis, Luke Hochevar, Vin Mizzaro, Sean O’Sullivan. These are the 6 pitchers who were named as the prime candidates to make up the Royals’ Starting Rotation to begin the season. Since there hasn’t been much press about these 6 dudes… because everyone likes to write about the bright new shinny prospects. So here is my pre-Spring Training forecast for the “Named Six”.

Kyle Davies. As per usual, Kyle will dazzle with his great fastball & spike-curveball. Kyle will do well for a while, and then loose his concentration. By mid-season, Kyle will find himself in the bullpen… do a fairly good job. But, I believe Kyle will be packaged in a mid-season trade… or Designated for Assignment next offseason.

Luke Hochevar. Here’s a tuffy. When healthy, he can be a very solid #3 starter, or better. But last year he injured his elbow during the season and when on the Disabled List. Then came back and was ineffective, so he was shut down for the rest of the year. Now they are calling him the probable Opening Day Starter. If he makes it out of Spring Training without needing surgery, I’m betting he’ll have some great games, but will end up having season ending surgery and (like Davies) probably never wear a Royals Uniform after 2011. And then again, Luke may feel the force and FINALLY become worthy of being a high draft choice (I won’t hold the #1 over-all pick tag on him).

I’ll combine Vin Mizzaro & Sean O’Sullivan. Both are youngish guys we got in trades during the season last year. Since we didn’t give away All-Star players in the trades, it’s doubtful that we got back All-Star pitching prospects. Both guys have the arms to be solid #3-#5 starters. But both have under-performed so far and could end up as easy cast-offs. I suggest that you flip a coin… one turning into an important piece in our rotation… the other… not so much. Don’t know (nor care) which.

Bruce Chen. The Bruce Chen we saw last year is the one I’ll be looking for this season. I’m guessing just a little better ERA & win total for Bruce. But he keeps talking about how he kept his pitches lower last year. When I view his 2010 re-caps, he got a lot of ground balls on pitches above the waist. Maybe he had a lot of downward movement through the hitting zone… it could happen! I like his veteran presence in the clubhouse… and sense of humor. I see Bruce as that all important innings eater.

Jeff Francis. Here’s our Ace! OK, NOT a big time dominating #1 starter, but he’ll be a better #1 guy than Redman and many other Pre-Greinke/Meche #1 starters. I’m looking for a sub-4. ERA & 15+ wins. If we get that out of him, 2011 may not be a total loss.

OR, I could be totally wrong.

The Process

More honors for Royals' prospects

The Royals have 9 prospects listed as Baseball America's top 100 prospects. Better yet, 5 of the top 20 prospects... that's 25%... are from the Royals organization. The team has asked us fans to be patient for over 2 decades. Then, General Manager Dayton Moore (GMDM) told us that rebuilding a young team takes time... that it is a process... "The Process".

As the Major League team in Kansas City continued to look the same (old overpaid washed up veterans with bad attitudes) with the same old loosing results, "The Process" was underway.

This is all part of GMDM's "process". And for all those who compared GMDM's "process" to other attempts at "youth movements", etc... there is just no comparison. It doesn't even compare to the last wave of #1's we had in AA who fought for a championship. Lubanski Maier, Butler, Gordon & I'll even add Greinke who was making his comeback from leaving baseball. From that wave, there were no real hot pitching prospects (Greinke had a couple ML years under his belt), and Mike Aviles was the only non-#1 draft pick player good enough to "complement" the wave. Also Lubanski & Maier were "sign ability" #1 picks... so they hardly count anyway. Nobody expected them to be possible All-Star players, anyway.

Now in this wave, we have a ton of pitching prospects... mostly lefties, and the list runs deep. We have multiple power and batting average corner infielders & (at least) one corner outfielder. WE have guys with great speed & defense up the middle. I have never known our farm system to have such depth throughout the entire minor league system.

Folks, this is "The Process" that a small market team can be competitive (not just in a one & done fashion) for an extended period of time.

This is not to say that 2011 may be yet another loosing year. But, we should see some of the youngsters begin to take their place in Kansas City Royals History.

Play Ball!

Farnsworth Starting?

Starting is 10 years in making for Farnsworth
Royals righty to have another shot after decade in the bullpen

By Dick Kaegel / MLB.com
02/21/10 8:45 PM EST

Not so fast there. Here’s the way I read it.

Last year, Kyle Farnsworth didn’t do well as a set-up man… with the game on the line. He showed time and again that he tends to choke in high stress situations.

He’s got a great arm, so the Royals are trying to figure out to how to maximize the best return on their investment in him. Believe me, making him a starter will NOT bring back high returns on their investment. Plus, if he makes the rotation, then there are MAJOR problems behind Zack Greinke. Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Robinson Tejeda, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar all have to crash and burn in order for Farnsworth to join the rotation.

They need to get the most productive innings as they can out of him. Pitching in the rotation will get more innings out of him, but the key here is quality innings. He showed a knack at shutting the other team down when the game was NOT on the line. To me, that is the key element in his ability to provide quality innings.

The article mentions that he’s working on new pitches. So here’s what the buzz REALLY comes down to. First, he needs more innings in Spring Training to work on developing his new pitches. Throwing in the bull-pen is helpful, but he needs to see how batters react to them. Starting games during Spring Training is a good way of getting those developmental innings.

Then when the season begins, he becomes a long reliever… pitching well in less stress games (last year, no one was able to stop the bleeding once the other team began scoring runs, he seems to thrive more in these settings). That was when he seemed to have his best outings… middle of the game, no late game pressures.

If (when) we need a spot starter, Kyle Farnsworth could be an option. NOT in the regular starting rotation, but a potential “swing man” to eat up innings in long relief, or occasionally start a game.

We Need A Healthy Gil Meche

Meche now No. 2, but feeling fine
Royals veteran happy for Greinke, and free of '09 back pain
By Dick Kaegel / MLB.com
02/19/10 6:06 PM EST


Whether Gil is “OK” about being the #2 guy in the Starting Rotation or not is of very little interest to me. The REAL question is whether Gil’s back is back. When a professional athlete looses his back, the rest of his body suffers. People run differently, and hurt their legs. Others throw differently, and hurt their arms.

The end of Gil’s 2009 season ended early and was shut down because of “arm & shoulder strain”. If indeed his core strength training resulted in a healthy Gil Meche, I’d put our #1 & #2 combination against ANY other 1-2 combination in the Major Leagues.

Aaron Crow… I just Gotta Say It

I know that scouts are WAY smarter than I am, but this guy has hardly pitched at all in 2 years… and he’s rated as MLB.com’s 41st over-all best prospect in baseball? How did he earn that? Don’t get me wrong; I’d like to see him ranked high on ANYONE’S top prospect list… when he’s earned it. And so far, he hasn’t earned squat! I just have this gut feeling about Scott BoreAss’s clients who are talked into taking an entire year off from baseball (as it turns out essentially 2 years), before they have proven ANYTHING on the professional level.

Professional sports is a young man’s game. After a guy’s spent time in college… then holds out a year… the takes the whole summer to finally sign a professional contract… his developmental clock is ticking. That’s 2 years of development wasted… two years of lost professional athlete wages… two more years away from arbitration… two more years away from free agency. In a young man’s sport, there is a BIG difference between a 28 and a 30 year old free agent.

There is a long list of “can’t miss” prospects who come out of high school or college… who DO miss. Maybe a guy like Luke Hochevar (another hold out “can’t miss” guy) will have a breakout season in 2010. Maybe Crow advances through the organization to be a prominent pitcher (like Luke didn’t). I’d love to see both of those things happen… but I’m not holding my breath.

The REAL exiting thing will be watching how the four Royals on MLB.COM’s prospect list (Mike Moustakas-32, Will Myers-33, Crow-41 & Mike Montgomery-43) develop… in addition to guys like Jeff Bianchi, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy.

I just hope we don’t get Jeff Austin-ed… again.

The Rick Ankiel Experiment

So the Royals are trying to “Catch Lightening In A Bottle”… again. Don’t get me wrong, I like the idea… it’s just a little redundant. I guess that is what happens when a team’s minor system isn’t pumping out solid prospects, and there isn’t a bottomless well to extract cash to BUY a contender.

But, unlike guys like Juan Gone, Ankiel should be a positive influence on the team in the locker & on the field…even though Rick is apparently requesting to be the Center Fielder. I don’t like a player telling the team (manager) when and where he should play, but who else do we have that would be better suited? But I’ve read that our outfield would be Scott Podsednik in left field, Ankiel in center and David DeJesus in right field. DeJesus had a great defensive year in left field, last year. He cut balls off and made accurate throws to the infield, but he doesn’t have a right fielder’s arm. Neither does Scott. I’d rather see DDJ in left, Pod in center and Ankiel in right. Actually what I’d RATHER see is DDJ in left, Mitch Maier in center, Ankiel in right and Pod as the #4 outfielder (though Mitch in R & Rick in C would work for me).

Anyway, I’ve also read that some fans don’t like the fact that Ankiel is “using” the Royals to give his career another kick-start. But that reminds me of a hot chick marrying a rich old man. Is she using him as a “Gold Digger”, or is he using her as a “Dirty Old Man”? The answer is, “YES!” It’s a win-win proposition (if it works). If Ankiel has a monster year the Royals will benefit on the field (ticket sales) for one year (possibly 2), then they can flip him for much needed high level prospects… in turn… he can go get his Bore-Ass deal when we’re done with him. THEN, some of our more highly touted recent draft picks may be ready to make their trip to The K.

With a seemingly weak AL Central, maybe Rick Ankiel will prove to be a boost on an otherwise weak offensive and defensive team.

Or Not!